The scientific progress being made in cancer research has never been more encouraging or more rewarding. Yet, virtually all oncology drug sponsors face an uphill battle in what one would expect to be the easiest part of the research process: recruiting patients for clinical trials. Despite the seriousness of the diagnosis—or perhaps because of it—only three percent of adult patients with cancer participate in clinical trials. As a result, under-enrollment is common.
Too many sponsors know firsthand the downside of over estimating how quickly an oncology trial can be enrolled. From the operational costs of rescuing or extending a trial to the lost opportunity cost of delayed market entry, the financial ramifications can be astronomical. If patient enrollment is difficult, forecasting patient enrollment is even more so. In general, the methods sponsors use to forecast enrollment aren’t very accurate, especially in oncology trials.
For better trial predictability, shorter timelines and meaningful cost savings, sponsors must take steps to ensure that their forecasts are realistic and achievable. In this session, the speakers will present an approach to forecasting enrollment in oncology trials. They will also share a case study with predicted vs. actual results.