Survival analysis plays a key role in many cost-effectiveness analyses and published guidelines are available to support the use of standard methods of survival extrapolation. However, the advent of new technologies with different methods of action, particularly in oncology, has changed the nature of survival and, in some cases, introduced the possibility of “cure.” Standard methods of extrapolation may struggle to capture these survival patterns and, hence, fail to capture the full value associated with these new technologies. During this webinar, presenters will recap the importance and relevance of extrapolation for survival analysis, introduce the concept of heterogeneity among patients in terms of survival, and demonstrate the implications for the use of standard approaches to survival extrapolation. More advanced approaches involving mixture and mixture cure modelling will be presented and explored as possible solutions to capture and account for this heterogeneity. In addition, the webinar will explore the potential challenges of employing these methods within survival extrapolation.
- To recap the importance and relevance of extrapolation for survival analysis
- To introduce the concept of heterogeneity in survival among patients and the implications for survival extrapolation
- To provide an overview of the mixture and mixture cure modelling methods to incorporate this heterogeneity
- To illustrate the use of mixture and mixture cure models through a case study
- To discuss the appropriate use of these methods including the strengths and limitations